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AFX News Limited
European spot CO2 emissions prices may recover from near-zero levels - study
07.16.07, 5:25 AM ET



PARIS (Thomson Financial) - It is premature to conclude that European spot prices for carbon dioxide emission permits will remain at their present near-zero levels for the remainder of the year, analysts at Caisse des Depots Climate Task Force said in a study.

In 2006, the second year of operation of the EU CO2 market, emissions allowances exceeded emissions rights, with total emissions at 2,027 mln tonnes, some 30 mln tonnes or 1.45 pct short of allocated allowances of 2,057 mln tonnes, Alexia Leseur and Raphael Trotignon said in the study.

The EU price has reacted to this information by approaching zero at the end of June, the analysts reported in Tendances Carbone, the newsletter of the Powernext Carbon exchange.

'Nevertheless, it would be premature to conclude that the price is necessarily destined to hover just above zero until the end of the first trading period' in December this year, they said.

The 2006 surplus was much smaller than in 2005, and surprises are still possible in 2007, Leseur and Trotritnon said.

Prices are much higher for emissions rights in 2008-2012, the second CO2 trading period defined by the EU, with CO2 futures for Dec 2008 trading at 22.29 eur per tonne compared with a spot price of 0.12 eur per tonne reached at the end of June for allowances in the the first trading period, Tendances Carbone said.

Powernext Carbon is a partnership of Powernext, Caisse des Depots and NYSE Euronext (nyse: NYX - news - people ) Inc.

Andrew.Newby@Thomson.com

an/jlw

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