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Global warming
could devastate economy
THOMAS
WAGNER Associated
Press
LONDON - Unchecked global warming will
devastate the world economy on the scale of the world wars and the
Great Depression, a British government report said Monday, as the
country launched a bid to convince doubters that environmentalism
and economic growth can coincide.
Britain hired former Vice President Al Gore, who has emerged as a
powerful environmental spokesman since his defeat in the 2000
presidential election, to advise the government on climate change -
a clear indication of Prime Minister Tony Blair's dissatisfaction
with current U.S. policy.
Blair, President Bush's top ally in the Iraq war, said unabated
climate change would eventually cost the world between 5 percent and
20 percent of global gross domestic product each year. He called for
"bold and decisive action" to cut carbon emissions and stem the
worst of the temperature rise.
"It is not in doubt that, if the science is right, the
consequences for our planet are literally disastrous," he said.
"This disaster is not set to happen in some science fiction future
many years ahead, but in our lifetime."
The report emphasized that global warming can only be fought with
the cooperation of major countries such as the United States and
China, and represents a huge contrast to the Bush administration's
wait-and-see global warming policies.
Sir Nicholas Stern, the senior government economist who wrote the
report, said that acting now to cut greenhouse gas emissions would
cost about 1 percent of global GDP each year. He recommended a
"low-carbon global economy" through measures including taxation,
regulation of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon trading.
"That is manageable," he said. "We can grow and be green."
Bush kept America - by far the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide
and other gases blamed for global warming - out of the Kyoto
international treaty to reduce greenhouse gases, saying the pact
would harm the U.S. economy. The international agreement was reached
in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997 and expires in 2012.
Blair made his displeasure with U.S. environmental policy clear
when he signed an agreement this year with California Gov. Arnold
Schwarzenegger to develop new technologies to combat the problem.
The measure imposed the first emissions cap in the United States on
utilities, refineries and manufacturing plants in a bid to curb the
gases that scientists blame for warming the Earth.
The prime minister and the report also said that no matter what
Britain, the United States and Japan do, the battle against global
warming cannot succeed without deciding when and how to control the
greenhouse gas emissions by such fast-industrializing giants as
China and India.
Stern's 700-page report said evidence showed "that ignoring
climate change will eventually damage economic growth."
"Our actions over the coming decades could create risks of major
disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century
and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the
great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th
century," he said.
The report said at current trends average global temperatures
will rise by 3.6 to 5.4 degrees within the next 50 years or so, and
the earth will experience several degrees more of warming if
emissions continue to grow.
It said such warming could have effects such as melting glaciers,
rising sea levels, declining crop yields, drinking water shortages,
higher death tolls from malnutrition and heat stress, and widespread
outbreaks of malaria and dengue fever. Developing countries often
would be the hardest hit.
The report acknowledged that its predictions regarding GDP relied
on sparse data about high temperatures and developing countries, and
placed monetary values on human health and the environment, "which
is conceptually, ethically and empirically very difficult."
Treasury Chief Gordon Brown, who is expected to replace Blair as
prime minister next year, said Britain would lead the international
effort against climate change, establishing "an economy that is both
pro-growth and pro-green." He called for Europe to cut its carbon
emissions by 30 percent by 2020 and 60 percent by 2050 - and Blair's
government on Monday said it would propose a British law to that
effect.
Under the 1997 Kyoto accord, 35 industrialized nations committed
to reducing emissions by an average 5 percent below 1990 levels by
2012.
But Britain is one of only a handful of industrialized nations
whose greenhouse gas emissions have fallen in the last decade and a
half, the United Nations said Monday.
The U.N. said Germany's emissions dropped 17 percent between 1990
and 2004, Britain's by 14 percent and France's by almost 1
percent.
Overall, there was a 2.4 percent rise in emissions by 41
industrialized nations from 2000 to 2004, mostly because former
Soviet-bloc countries, whose emissions declined in their economic
downturn of the 1990s, increased emissions during the recent
four-year period by 4.1 percent.
The British government is considering new "green taxes" on cheap
airline flights, fuel and high-emission vehicles. |