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Greenhouse gas goals extremely ambitious
By Daniel Weintraub
The legislation California enacted last month to seize for itself a
leading role in the fight against global warming is only the beginning
of what will probably be five years of intense, behind-the-scenes
battles over just how to reduce greenhouse gases to the level emitted
in 1990, when California's population and its economy were much smaller
than they are today.
AB 32 was titled the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006. But the
bill does little more than establish the goal of reducing the state's
greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent below levels now projected for
2020. That's about 174 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, which, by
volume, is equivalent to filling 64 Empire State Buildings from the
lobby to the tower above the observation deck.
Most of the heavy lifting will be done by the Air Resources Board,
an 11-member panel that includes 10 citizen regulators and one
full-time chairman appointed by the governor. The legislation grants
the board extraordinary powers to set policies, draw up regulations,
lead the enforcement effort and levy fees to finance it all and fines
to punish violators.
What will it take to achieve the benchmark? Consider that California
could take every one of its 14 million passenger cars off the road, and
still be less than halfway toward its goal. Shutting down 100
state-of-the-art, natural-gas-fired power plants still wouldn't get us
there. Closing the entire cement industry, although it is a major
source of greenhouse gases, wouldn't finish the job.
In fact, none of those draconian steps will be taken -- but
regulators hope many smaller steps together can get California to its
ambitious goal without ruining the state's economy.
The process will begin next summer, when the air board is due to
publish a list of the easiest steps the state and its industries could
take to reduce emissions -- the low-hanging fruit ready for picking
immediately. These might include measures to reduce idling of
diesel-fueled trucks and of ships docked in port, new regulations on
auto air conditioning and other refrigeration units, and restrictions
on emissions from manure piled up at Central Valley farms.
By January 2008, the board is supposed to adopt its formal estimate
of the 1990 levels to which California must reduce its emissions and a
system for requiring companies to monitor and report their emissions to
the government.
The board's first comprehensive plan for how the state will meet
that goal is due by January 2009. That document is supposed to spell
out how much of the reduction will come from which industries. It will
also describe how much of the reduction will be achieved through direct
regulation of business practices and how much through a market in which
companies can purchase the right to pollute from other firms that have
reduced their emissions by more than the required amount.
By January 2011, the board is scheduled to adopt the regulations,
and those rules will take effect one year later. The board will also be
free to levy and collect fees to finance the project and assess fines
to punish companies that fail to comply.
The legislation does not limit the air board's discretion in
deciding which industries and companies to target. But officials expect
that, at least initially, most of the attention will be focused on five
major sources of greenhouse gases: electricity generation, oil and gas
extraction, oil and gas refineries, cement production, and landfills.
Chuck Shulach, who is managing the greenhouse gas reduction program
for the air board, said it is not likely that each individual industry
will be expected to reduce its emissions to 1990s levels. Instead, the
state as a whole will have to meet that standard, and the air board
will divvy up the responsibility according to the law's edict to force
each industry to achieve the ``maximum feasible and cost-effective''
level of reduction.
These are revolutionary changes, breathtaking in their scope. The
technical, legal and regulatory grind to come will represent one of the
greatest social engineering projects ever undertaken by state
government. It will deserve close scrutiny.
DANIEL WEINTRAUB is a Sacramento Bee columnist.
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